Drop chance calculator for Fifa 19

This basic calculator shows the theoretical probabilty of succeeding by repeating something with a fixed drop chance.

10.00%

chance for a player

123 packs

to have a 90% chance to get the player at least once

423 packs

to have a 99% chance to get the player at least once
Succeeding at least once
67.02% for 10 pack openings
89.12% for 20 pack openings
89.12% for 30 pack openings

Gold Packs

Calculate 9.30%
Gold Pack 82+
Calculate 3.40%
Gold Pack 83+
Calculate 20.00%
Prm Gold Pack 82+
Calculate 4.40%
Prm Gold Pack 84+
Calculate 42.00%
Prm Gold Jumbo 82+
Calculate 4.70%
Prm Gold Jumbo 85+
Calculate 41.00%
Prm Electrum Players 82+
Calculate 4.30%
Prm Electrum Players 85+
Calculate 59.00%
Gold Players Prm 82+
Calculate 3.60%
Gold Players Prm 86+
Calculate 58.00%
Rare Gold 82+
Calculate 4.00%
Rare Gold 86+
Calculate 4.50%
Mega Pack 87+
Calculate 4.00%
Prime Gold Players 87+
Calculate 5.20%
Rare Player Pack 88+
Calculate 2.90%
Jumbo Rare Pl Pck 90+
Calculate 3.40%
Ultimate Pack 90+

Silver Packs

Calculate 61.00%
Silver Pack 70+
Calculate 11.00%
Silver Pack 73+
Calculate 72.00%
Prm Silver Pack 70+
Calculate 23.00%
Prm Silver Pack 73+
Calculate 97.00%
Silver Players 70+
Calculate 38.00%
Silver Players 73+

Bronze Packs

Calculate 87.00%
Bronze Pack 60+
Calculate 40.00%
Bronze Pack 63+
Calculate 92.00%
Prm Bronze Pack 60+
Calculate 58.00%
Prm Bronze Pack 63+

The concept behind the calculated probability
The drop chance for each individual run stays the same. Repetition does not increase the drop chance as such. What it does increase is the probability to get what you want the more repetitons you do.
But there is no guarantee for success even at 99.99% probability.
This calculator gives you an indication of the number of tries you have to expect.
The math behind number of runs
The calculation of how many tries should give at least one positive result is done by using the chance to fail.
10% drop chance means a 90% probability (0.9) to fail. For 10 runs this means a probabilty 0.910 to fail. This results in 0.35, meaning 35% chance of not succeeding in 10 runs. And this again means 65% chance of succeeding (at least once) in 10 runs.
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